SELECTION, TRAINING, AND DEVELOPMENT OF PERSONNEL:THE FUTURE OF SELECTION, TRAINING, AND DEVELOPMENT

THE FUTURE OF SELECTION, TRAINING, AND DEVELOPMENT

We do not claim to hold a crystal ball; however, some aspects of selection, training, and development are likely to stay the same, while others are likely to change. In our view, those that will stay the same are based on well-established research results and apply independently of increasing globali- zation and accelerating technological development. Those that will change lack these attributes.

Selection

Selection tools will likely remain focused on measuring past and current behavior. Some tools that rely on assessing current performance may be slow to change because of difficulties associated with simulating tasks remotely. Many tools will become more widely used over the Internet. That is, organizations will increasingly use the Internet as a means for obtaining information previously gained via application forms, paper-based tests, interviews, and other selection devices. For example, many organizations now use Internet-based application forms that feed candidates’ responses in standard formats directly into databases, which are then mined to match candidates’ qualifications with job requirements. Similarly, because of globalization, it is likely that selection tools such as application forms, tests, and interviews will also become increasingly available in multilingual and multicultural versions. Further, simulations and work sample assessments will be increasingly used, also in different culturally oriented and language-based forms.

Training

The basic development process for training is likely to remain some form of systems-oriented in- structional model, although cognitively oriented technologies will increasingly be developed. The well-researched ISD approach has been adapted for use in many cultures and leads to reliable out- comes regardless of the specific type of technology employed. As cognitive approaches become better able to predict factors that build expertise, they will be more frequently used in task analysis. Results may be used to design training that is more useful for ‘‘far transfer’’ situations—that is, to tasks relatively dissimilar to those used as examples during training (see Clark 1992). Still, results of cognitive analysis are likely to be used within the context of a systems-oriented instructional model.

Training delivery and administration systems are very likely candidates for change. Computer- based training (CBT), now widely available in CD-ROM format, is increasingly more available in other disk-based formats (e.g., DVD) and on the Internet as Web-based training (WBT). Limitations on processing power, memory, storage, and bandwidth are all decreasing rapidly. This is leading to an increased ability for CBT, regardless of its mode of delivery, to offer high levels of simulation. Streaming audio and streaming video, voice recognition, and other technological advances are rapidly improving simulation fidelity. Similarly, advances in manipulanda (e.g., tactile gloves, aircraft yokes) are also increasing simulation fidelity. The result is that training delivered to remote sites can use both simulation and work sample presentation more effectively.

Other distance learning approaches, such as virtual classrooms, are being used increasingly. Both synchronous (real-time classroom) and asynchronous (classes via forums and message boards) types of distance learning will become widely used. For example, it is likely that organizations will in- creasingly incorporate university courses directly into work environments. This can be done globally with, for example, Saudi managers taking economics courses offered by Japanese universities.

There are negative aspects to the rapid spread of distance learning techniques. Often media values are emphasized at the expense of sound instructional practice. For example, much CBT available today does not make use of the technology for branching to different points in instruction based upon learner responses. Although the technology for branching has existed since the 1960s (see, e.g., Markle 1969), much CBT available today is linear. Although some argue that learner control (the ability to move through lessons at will) is more important than programmed control, research findings suggest otherwise. Clark (1989), for instance, showed that given a choice of approach (structured or unstructured), CBT users were more likely to choose the alternative least useful for skill acquisition. Novice learners, who may have benefited from a structured approach, often chose an unstructured one, while experts, who could use their advanced ability to explore advantageously, were more likely to choose structured approaches. Similarly, the advance of virtual classrooms in corporate settings may lead to an emphasis on education, as opposed to training. Thus, employees may learn more generalities about topics, at the expense of learning how to perform tasks.

One recent development in training has been slow to evolve. Electronic performance support systems (EPSS), which combine online help, granular training, and expert advice functions, were popularized by Gery (1991). Although used in some corporations today, EPSS use does not seem to be accelerating, possibly because development costs are relatively high. In an EPSS, help is directly available on employee computers. In addition to highly contextual online help, brief, focused training modules are offered when users repeatedly request help on the same topics. Such systems use artificial intelligence techniques, such as algorithms based upon data derived from users’ experiences, to offer expert advice. Thus, a user who wanted to advise a consumer on what lumber to purchase for a deck could select an expert advisor function to input the consumer’s space requirements and house di- mensions, and the computer could immediately provide appropriate sketches and lumber require- ments. Such systems can dramatically reduce amounts of time spent in formal training.

Development

Like training, approaches for individual, management, and leadership development are likely to be offered increasingly on the Internet via virtual classrooms. Since many organizations continue to spend a large amount on development activities, there is little reason to suppose that they will discontinue such expenditures.